Question The number of threat vectors that the United States and its’ allies fac
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The number of threat vectors that the United States and its’ allies face on a regular basis would make your brain hurt. They come in all shapes and sizes both internal and external to the country. We know that nation-states have different priorities. This certainly extends to the IC and its’ analysis of threats…or does it? Does the United States look at man-made (vice natural) threats differently than other countries or groups of countries such as the EU? If so, how are the approaches different?
Take a look at this week’s readings and do some additional research, pick a threat vector….cyber, smuggling, WMD, money laundering, terrorism and discuss similarities/differences between the way the U.S and other government IC look at this issue. Do our ICs have the same strategies, priorities, and expected outcomes? Do we even define key terms such as “terrorist” or “terrorism” the same way? You have a lot of latitude for this discussion to look at foreign government and the approach their IC takes on an issue. It is OK to use the EU in place of a single nation-state.
Blindside : How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics.
Book Title Blindside : How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics. Chapters 1-5
Author / Editor Fukuyama
Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, 5th ed
Chapter 20. Hard Copy Text/VitalSource eBook. Purchase required for those not covered by the Book Grant
Book Title Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, 5th ed
Author / Editor Robert M. Clark
Publisher CQ Press;
Volume / Edition 5th
ISBN 9781506316819 or 9781506316802
Karl Spielmann (2012) Strengthening Intelligence Threat Analysis, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 25:1, 19-43, DOI: 10.1080/08850607.2012.623035
Kenneth L. Lasoen. (2017) Indications and warning in Belgium: Brussels is not Delphi. Journal of Strategic Studies 40:7, pages 927-962.
Karl Spielmann. (2014) Using Enhanced Analytic Techniques for Threat Analysis: A Case Study Illustration. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence 27:1, pages 132-155.
Department of State. 2012. “Foreign Terrorist Organizations.” Accessed December 2, 2015. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/123085.htm Farrall, Leah. 2011. “How al Qaeda Works.” Foreign Affairs. March/April 2011 Issue: 128-138.
Gartenstein-Ross, Daveed. 2013. “Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Al Qaeda’s Senior Leadership.” Accessed December 2, 2015. http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb-and-al-qaedas-senior-leadership/ Hajji, Khalifa. 2009. “The Origins and Strategic Objectives of the Al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb.” Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Defense Analysis from the Naval Postgraduate School. Accessed December 2, 2015. http://www.frstrategie.org/barreFRS/publications/dossiers/aqmi/doc/09Dec_Hajji.pdf Jacinto, Leela. 2010. “Key Figures in al Qaeda’s North African Branch.” France 24. Accessed December 2, 2015. https://www.cimicweb.org/cmo/medbasin/Documents/North%20Africa/Security/Key%20figures%20in%20al%20Qaeda%20North%20Africa.pdf Johnston, Rob. 2005. Analytic Culture in the US Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency. Accessed December 3, 2015. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/analytic-culture-in-the-u-s-intelligence-community/chapter_6_culture.htm. Roach, Morgan Lorraine and Adam Gianella. 2012. “Foreign Militants Complicate Crisis in Northern Mali.” The Foundry. Accessed December 2, 2015. http://blog.heritage.org/2012/11/06/foreign-militants-complicate-crisis-in-northern-mali/ Roggio, Bill. 2013. “US Adds senior AQIM commander to terrorist list.” Long War Journal. Accessed December 2, 2015. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/02/us_adds_aqim_command.php Roggio, Bill. 2013. “Belmokhtar claims Algerian raid, slaying of hostages for al Qaeda.” Long War Journal. Accessed December 2, 2015. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/01/belmokhtar_claims_al.php Thurston, Alex. 2011. “AQIM Kidnappings and Murders in the Sahel, 2007 – Present.” Sahel Blog. Accessed December 2, 2015. http://sahelblog.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/aqim-kidnappings-and-murders-in-the-sahel-2007-present/ Torres Soriano, Manuel R. 2011. “The Evolution of the Discourse of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: Themes, Countries and Individuals.” Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 16, No. 2: 279-298.
Walther, Olivier and Dimitris Christopoulos. 2012. “A Social Network Analysis of Islamic Terrorism and the Malian Rebellion.” CEPS Instead Working Papers No. 2012-38. Accessed December 2, 2015. http://www.academia.edu/2095350/A_social_network_analysis_of_Islamic_terrorism_and_the_Malian_rebellion